Morgan Stanley Tesla · TSLA

Morgan Stanley Reaffirms Overweight on Tesla, $430 Price Target

Analyst: Adam Jonas 1 min read Reproduced verbatim
Rating
Overweight
Unchanged
Target
$430
Outcome
Reached
on September 22, 2025
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What the analyst said

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated an Overweight rating and $430 price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).

“Wanted to share some thoughts from our 3-question Tesla investor survey, sent to our distribution list on March 11th at 3:15pm with results aggregated from 245 responses over 17 hours: • 85% of respondents think Elon’s political activities are having a negative or extremely negative impact on Tesla’s business fundamentals. • 59% of respondents expect FY25 deliveries to fall y/y.

Only 19% of respondents think Tesla auto deliveries are up y/y, 23% expect flat deliveries y/y. Notably, 21% expect deliveries down by more than 10% y/y.

These results present a stark contrast to our Tesla Bull Bear lunch in January where sentiment on full year growth was far more bullish. • Despite the negative outlook for Tesla’s business fundamentals, investors seem more evenly split between stock up (45%) vs. down (36%) by yearend from today’s level.

We note that these results are a limited sample of 245 respondents from our distribution list, and not a random representative sample of investors.

We also note that survey respondents are not necessarily Tesla shareholders.”

Disclaimer
The price target and rating on this page are the opinion of the issuing research firm and its analyst, not of Price Target. This page is published for informational purposes only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consider your own circumstances and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

This research note is reproduced verbatim from the issuing firm. Price Target never edits, paraphrases or alters analysts’ words — we only republish them in one place.

Where the price stands

TSLA trades at $344. The 17 analysts who set a target in the last 3 months range from $24.86 to $500, with a median of $442. This $430 target is 3% below the median.

Since the note TSLA has moved +49% (from $231). The 12-month window closed on March 12, 2026.

Track record

This call✓ Target reached on September 22, 2025, 8 months after the note. Same target as this firm’s January 13, 2025 note, so it is scored there.

Firm track recordMorgan Stanley: 82% of its 49 targets at least a year old were reached within 12 months (#8 of 26 firms); on Tesla, 4 of 5. Accuracy ranking →

Morgan Stanley on Tesla

Morgan Stanley price targets on Tesla

8 calls from April 23, 2026 to October 22, 2026. The target went from $415 to $410 (−1%). The rating stayed Hold.

Morgan Stanley targetTSLA share price
  1. October 22, 2026Target raised from $400 (+2%)Hold$410
  2. September 21, 2026Kept the $400 targetHold$400
  3. September 11, 2026Kept the $400 targetHold$400
  4. September 2, 2026Kept the $400 targetHold$400
  5. July 23, 2026Target cut from $417 (−4%)Hold$400
  6. July 14, 2026Target raised from $415 (0%)Hold$417
  7. July 6, 2026Kept the $415 targetHold$415
  8. April 23, 2026Earliest call shownHold$415
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Other analysts on Tesla

CantorBuy Kept rating and price target Oct 26 $485maintained BarclaysBuy Upgraded, raised price target +22% Oct 26 $450from $370 StoneXBuy Kept rating and price target Oct 22 $475maintained BNP ParibasHold Upgraded Oct 22 JP MorganHold Raised price target +4%, kept rating Oct 22 $430from $415
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Price Target is an archive of Wall Street analyst research, published for informational purposes only. Nothing on this site is investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Analyst ratings and price targets are the opinions of the issuing firms, not of Price Target. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser.