Cantor Fitzgerald Upgrades Tesla to Overweight, $425 Price Target

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard upgraded Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) from Neutral to Overweight with a price target of $425.

“Upgrading Tesla to Overweight: Takeaways from Visit to Austin’s Gigafactory and AI Data Centers.

On 3/18 we visited Tesla’s Cortex AI data centers and the factory’s production lines ahead of the company’s introduction of its Robotaxi segment (targeted for June in Austin followed by CA later in 2025).

With Tesla’s shares now down ~45% YTD, we upgrade Tesla to Overweight (from Neutral) ahead of upcoming material catalysts; Our $425 12-month PT is unchanged.

Our Thoughts: Attractive Entry Point Ahead of Material Calaysts.

We believe the recent selloff represents an attractive entry point for investors with >12-month investment horizon (and who are comfortable with volatility).

We become bullish on TSLA ahead of material catalysts Including: the introduction of Robotaxi segment (June 2025), rollout of FSD in China (started in 1Q25), rollout of FSD in Europe (we expect 1H25 pending regulatory approval), introduction of lower-priced vehicle in 1H25 (we expect initial price of ~$30,000 inclusive of tax credit), high volume production of Optimus Bot (2026), initial deliveries of Optimus to customers (we expect 4Q26E/1H26) and introduction of Semi Truck (we expect SOP in 2H25/2026).

For 2025, TSLA recently disclosed that it expects its automotive business to “return to growth”(produced and delivered <1.8M vehicles in FY24) and for its Energy Storage and Deployments segment to grow >50% (grew ~113% in 2024).

However, we expect Tesla’s automotive business growth to be partially offset by tariffs, and the likely removal the EV tax credit, both of which we expect will have a material impact to the industry.

We also expect a mild 1Q, driven by lower demand in Europe and increased competition in China, plus some negative sentiment from Elon’s polarizing politics.

Recall revenues from China, and other regions accounted for ~21% and ~30% of total revenues, respectively, in FY24.

Overall we are bullish after our factory visit, and after the recent market selloff and share underperformance.

We see future revenue upside from FSD, Robotaxi, Energy Storage & Deployment, and Optimus Bots, to be fundamental to TSLA’s thesis over the long term.”

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