UBS Affirms Buy on NVIDIA, $185 Price Target

UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri reiterated a Buy rating and $185 price target on NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA).

“The Taiwan Ministry of Finance released March export data…including Automatic Data Processing equipment (ADP).

ADP ex laptops was $12.03B, +20.6% M/M from February’s $9.97B; on one hand this is slightly below normal seasonal mid-20s M/M growth (March is the strongest month of the year), but on the other this was the fourth straight month of at least mid-teens growth and came over the top of the strongest February in over a decade (+14% M/M relative to -15% historical seasonality).

Assuming April constitutes a “normal” 36% of total F1Q (Apr Q) would imply ~$34B of exports – a large step-up of ~58% Q/Q – although it is unclear to what extent this reflects tariff pull-ins rather than underlying strength.

We model NVDA’s data center revenue up 18% Q/Q to $42B in Apr Q.

On the surface, this reads positively for NVDA, but we express caution as the data has not been predictive over the past several Qs and continues to decouple by as much as mid-teens in either direction in recent years.

Additionally, TSMC reported upside to March sales, up +10% M/M and above seasonality.”

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