UBS Reiterates Buy on NVIDIA, $300 Price Target

UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri reiterated a Buy rating and $300 price target on NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA).

“Media reports (here) suggest that NVDA’s Board of Directors is now preparing to oust Jensen Huang as CEO and working with an outside firm to determine candidates as successors. While the company would likely find a strong candidate, Jensen has obviously been a singular force in many ways so the impact will likely be felt far and wide. We would especially highlight three key areas:

1. Financing – the company has become a key source of funds for a host of AI industry participants including neo-clouds, LLM developers, ecosystem partners, and suppliers, and we have always seen Jensen as a key driving force for this effort.

Even if a new leader ultimately maintains a similar approach, there is likely to be some “pause” in the company’s willingness and ability to continue pursuing these deals in the near term. We estimate NVDA is generating ~$50-60B/Q in FCF – a big portion of which has been put back into the system, so this could easily take ~ $50B or more out of the system – at least temporarily – at a potentially key time when interest rates are rising and certain segments of the credit market have become less liquid.

2. Supply chain – the company has often been far ahead of peers in terms of long-term supply agreements in a host of key areas including memory, substrates, and other areas. While this will obviously remain a key element of the company’s strategy, we always viewed Jensen as somewhat singular in this regard and out in front of some key peers from a procurement perspective.

3. Potential for new, tighter restrictions – we could see the US government enforcing even tighter restrictions that could impact NVDA’s (and other companies like AMD’s) ability to ship product into China but even more importantly into other regions like Singapore or Malaysia.

NVDA changed its geographic revenue disclosures in mid-C2025, but Singapore was at that time nearly 20% of revenue. If we assume a portion of this, together with some additional portion of its China revenue (which is now quite small), could be at risk, we estimate this could be in the range of ~10% of revenue.”

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