UBS Lowers NVIDIA Price Target to $175

UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri lowered the price target on NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) to $175 (from $180) while maintaining a Buy rating.

“Amid the recent H20 ban, we still expect FQ1 revenue to be slightly ahead of $43B guidance with FQ2 (July) revenue biased up, though only slighty given the ban.

This should be enough to satisfy investors because many (about half) expect revenue to be guided down Q/Q.

We expect growth to reaccelerate in 2H as GB300 racks start to ship in late CQ3 and NVDA is potentially allowed to resume shipments of data center GPUs to China with a modified Blackwell-based SKU.

We see FQ1 EPS ~$0.76 v Street $0.89 on gross margin of ~58.5% v 71% guidance as it flows H20 ban charges through non-GAAP.

Aside from this noise, we do expect a confident overall tone on the call, but the company could slightly temper 2H gross margin commentary because it is sticking with the Bianca compute board configuration for GB300 and pushing the higher margin Cordelia boards to Rubin next year.

Press reports suggest the AI Diffusion Rule will be replaced with a direct licensing structure (if there are no caps, this would be a big win for NVDA) but we do note that even a direct licensing requirement would add some bureaucracy versus the current situation.

Overall, we are cutting estimates to reflect what may be a bigger impact from the H20 ban that we originally expected and our F2026/C2025EEPS goes to $4.22 – with a big piece of the $0.20 gap between our estimate and Street $4.42 being FQ1 gross margin.

We expect Q/Q growth to reaccelerate in C2H and see F2027/C2026E EPS of nearly $5.90 versus most investors now thinking low $5s.

Net, we maintain Buy rated of the stock, but on lower estimates we cut our PT from $180 to $175 .”

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