JPMorgan Maintains Overweight on NVIDIA, $170 Price Target

JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur reiterated an Overweight rating and $170 price target on NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA).

“NVIDIA reported solid Apr-Qtr revenues of $44B (above ours/consensus estimates of $43B) even with ~$2.5B of lost H20 China GPU shipments due to China restrictions (restrictions to China went into effect on April 9th) while margins/EPS were impacted by the $4.5B of H20 inventory write-downs/purchase commitments driving lower GMs (61% versus prior guide of 71%) and EPS of $0.81 (versus consensus of $0.93).

For the Jul-Qtr, the team guided revenues to $45B, below consensus ($46B) as sell-side estimates did not accurately reflect the H20 shipment restrictions, but better than our expectations of $41-$43B taking into account the H20 restrictions.

Ex-H20 shipments, we estimate that July quarter datacenter revenues are growing ~16% Q/Q on continued strong spending from its customers to support their AI/accelerated compute initiatives (both training/inference) and the continued strong production/deployment ramp of its Blackwell datacenter platform.

Blackwell shipments are expected to continue to ramp higher through the year and the team remains on track to ramp its next-gen Blackwell Ultra (B300/GB300) near the end of this quarter.

We still believe there is ~$5B in H20 shipments that were scheduled for shipments in the 2H which will not be shipped due to April H20 restrictions.

In Networking, revenues inflected strongly (Q/Q and Y/Y) in the April-Qtr as the team benefitted from strong networking (NVLink switch) content in NVL72 rackscale platforms (although TTM networking revenues are up only 37% versus compute revenues which are up 113% – we will continue to monitor the sustainability of the networking inflection closely).

Demand for Blackwell is very strong and will continue to outstrip supply for several quarters, although the team and its value-chain partners are now shipping 1000 NVL72 racks per week — strong production execution. GM guidance (72%) was 30 bpts above consensus expectations as the team aggressively ramps its higher margin Blackwell platforms on increasingly improving yield/cost dynamics.

Given recent elimination of the diffusion rule and recent mega datacenter build-out announcements (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, etc), we believe the team has good visibility for continued strong growth through CY26.

Bottom line, the team continues to maintain a 1- 2 step lead ahead of competitors with its silicon/hardware/software platforms and a strong ecosystem, and the team is further distancing itself with its aggressive cadence of new product launches and more product segmentation over time.

We adjust our forward estimates, introduce our CY26 estimates, and maintain our Dec-25 PT of $170, and reiterate our OW rating.”

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