Guggenheim Raises Meta Price Target to $800

Guggenheim analyst Michael Morris raised the price target on Meta Platforms Inc.

(NASDAQ: META) to $800 (from $725) while maintaining a Buy rating.

“Investor confidence in Meta’s performance and AI playbook remains strong ahead of 2Q earnings, with shares +30% since 1Q (vs. S&P500 +15%).

Pre earnings buyside survey work by Guggenheim TMT Specialist Seth Ostrie shows META as the second-ranked long idea into earnings (27% of 105 respondents) and ninth ranked short idea (10%).

We see two points of focus: 1) topline growth in the company’s core advertising business and 2) level of investment into business expansion, with the resulting impact on multi-year earnings provided the shorthand for results evaluation.

On revenue, our intra-quarter ad checks indicate continued Direct Response (DR) demand strength fueled by progress on Advantage+.

Current consensus forecast implies further compression of Meta advertising growth relative to Google Search and Other, with 2Q at a 3% spread vs. 6% in 1Q.

Holding 1Q trend implies 18% ad growth and $46.1bn of total 2Q revenue (vs $45.5bn at high end of guidance).

On capex, while the company has already increased guide this year, we believe that the magnitude of opportunity and the competitive intensity in pursuing AI growth are likely to fuel further aggressiveness in investment.

Recent comments from CEO Mark Zukerberg reflect ongoing expansion commitments (7/14 – Link), and we believe likely indicate higher levels of sustained capex than we previously modeled with management focused on training Llama models on larger scale vs. competitors.Buyside survey shows 95% of respondents forecasting 2026E capex ≥ $76bn (we are now at $82bn).

We raise our revenue, capex and D&A estimates as detailed within. Maintain BUY rating and raise price target to $800 (vs. $725 prior).”

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