Mizuho Lowers Rivian Price Target to $12
- Rating
- Hold
- Target
- $12
- from $13 (−8%)
- Outcome
- Reached
- on August 6, 2025
What the analyst said
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered the price target on Rivian Automotive Inc (NASDAQ: RIVN) to $12 (from $13) while maintaining a Neutral rating.
“RIVN reported in-line JunQ revenue with deliveries ~10.7K units (dn 23% y/y) ahead of new launches in 2H25E.
Key highlights: 1) SepQ strongest Q ahead of end of IRA credit on 9/30, 2) Reiterated 2025E deliveries target at ~43K (down 17% y/y vs cons 42.9k) with new MY2026 R1 launches; 3) R2 SOP 1H26E as commissioning starting in SepQ, 50% lower BoM Cost vs R1, tool install ongoing; 4) R2 capacity at ~155k in Normal, IL with Georgia 200K longer term.
We estimate 2026E deliveries at 68k units, up 58% y/y (cons 75.3k, our prior ~67.7k, as we continue to see EV growth in the US challenged in 2025E.
Maintain Neutral, adjusting estimates and PT to $12 (prior $13).”
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Where the price stands
RIVN trades at $13.96. The 11 analysts who set a target in the last 3 months range from $14 to $23, with a median of $20. This $12 target is 40% below the median, the lowest on the Street.
Since the note RIVN has moved +15% (from $12.15). The 12-month window closed on August 6, 2026.
Track record
This call✓ Target reached on August 6, 2025, 0 days after the note.
Firm track recordMizuho: 96% of its 27 targets at least a year old were reached within 12 months (#2 of 20 firms); on Rivian, 5 of 6. Accuracy ranking →
Mizuho on Rivian
Mizuho price targets on Rivian
8 calls from March 16, 2025 to October 20, 2025. The target went from $11 to $10 (−9%). The rating moved from Hold to Sell.
- October 20, 2025Downgraded to Sell, target cut from $14 (−29%)Sell$10
- September 23, 2025Target raised from $12 (+17%)Hold$14
- August 6, 2025 This noteTarget cut from $13 (−8%)Hold$12
- June 27, 2025Kept the $13 targetHold$13
- May 16, 2025Target raised from $11 (+18%)Hold$13
- May 7, 2025Target raised from $10 (+10%)Hold$11
- April 10, 2025Target cut from $11 (−9%)Hold$10
- March 16, 2025Earliest call shownHold$11
