Barclays Keeps ‘Overweight’ Rating on Nvidia

Barclays analyst Tom O’Malley reiterated on September 22, 2025, an ‘Overweight’ rating and $200 price target on Nvidia.

“Our Take

Just a few weeks ago, the latest in AI hype was around AVGO’s $10B deal with OpenAI (see here for our thoughts post-earnings).

Since this deal, the conversation has shifted to “is custom ASIC the future?”, especially with the slightly lower Compute number from NVDA at earnings.

Today’s announcement shows that we are in a compute bonanza and while the custom silicon announcement came first, general purpose silicon will run the majority of OpenAI (private, not covered) workloads at least through the end of this decade.

Based on commentary from NVDA’s 2Q26 earnings (full thoughts here), 1GW is the equivalent of ~$35B+ revenue to NVDA, which translates to ~$350B+ from this OpenAI partnership to deploy 10GW of NVDA systems.

NVDA is 3.5x ($35B vs. $10B) the size of the ASIC program in the 2H of next year at OpenAI.

It’s clear that both custom and general purpose compute are in max demand in this environment, but we don’t think NVDA is getting enough credit as this deal is entirely incremental and could add $35B to Street numbers (both compute and networking).”

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