TD Cowen Raises Tesla Price Target to $509

TD Cowen analyst Itay Michaeli raised the price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to $509 (from $374) while maintaining a Buy rating.

“The stock has traded well into Q3, supported by a sizable Q3 delivery beat, the CEO compensation proposal and continued AV/AI progress.

In light of this and in keeping with our discipline of assessing sentiment & catalysts, we see an overall balanced setup into Q3.

That said, as we’ve previously written, the product goals outlined in the CEO compensation proposal increased our confidence in the LT story, which is now reflected in our increased price target (see below).

Additionally, despite the run-up in the shares, we think 2026 expectations remain fairly muted given significant EV market pressures. Thus, we maintain our positive stance on the stock.

Estimates & Target: We’re updating our model to reflect Q3 deliveries and other recent datapoints/updates. Our 2025E EPS moves up slightly while out-year estimates are also revised slightly higher.

With an encouraging Q3 delivery outcome, new product rollouts and, most importantly, the recent product goals in the proposed CEO compensation package looking well-aligned with our thesis (see here for more), we’re raising our price target to reflect our added LT confidence.

Our DCF-based price target goes to $509 on updated estimates and higher EBITDA terminal value multiple (30x vs. 15x prior).

With our baseline estimates not fully reflecting Consumer AV / FSD opportunities, our increased confidence in this disruptive upside potential is reflected in the target multiple.

Our target multiples also reflect what we view as scarcity value for AV deployment exposure.”

This research note is reproduced verbatim from the issuing firm. Price Target never edits, paraphrases or alters analysts’ words — we only republish them in one place.