Cantor Fitzgerald Reiterates Tesla’s $510 Price Target
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard reiterated on January 2, 2026, an ‘Overweight’ rating on Tesla, with a $510 price target.
“Tesla’s 4Q25 Production and Deliveries Below Expectations
On 1/2, TSLA pre-announced that in 4Q25 it delivered 418,227 vehicles, below our estimate/consensus of 425,098/422,850, (and below 482,579 in 4Q24).
Of the total vehicles delivered, 406,585 were Model 3/Y and 11,642 comprised the other models (Model S, Model X, Cybertruck).
For FY25, TSLA delivered 1,636,129 vehicles, below our estimate/consensus of 1,643,000/1,640,752, (and below 1,747,988 vehicles in FY24).
Of the total vehicles delivered, 1,585,279 were Model 3/Y and 50,850 comprised the other models (Model S, Model X, Cybertruck).
Separately, Tesla also pre-announced that it had produced 434,358 vehicles in 4Q25 (below 459,445 vehicles in 4Q24). For FY25, TSLA produced 1,654,667 vehicles (below 1,773,443 vehicles in FY24).
Energy Storage Highest on Record
Tesla also announced on that it had deployed 14.2 GWh of energy storage products in 4Q25, in-line with our estimate of 14.7 GWh and above consensus of 13.4 GWh, (and above 11.0 GWh in 4Q24).
For FY25, the company deployed 46.7 GWh (highest in company history) vs. 31.4 GWh in FY24.
What’s Next?
TSLA will report 4Q25/FY25 earnings on 1/28 after the market close and host its earnings call at 5:30 PM ET.
Valuation
Our OW rating and our $510 PT are unchanged, pending a full model update.
We arrive at our valuation via a 10-year bottom-up DCF approach.
Key Risks Include
- Supply chain disruptions,
- Manufacturing constraints,
- Chinese legislation and competition from Chinese OEMs,
- Technological advancements, and
- Slowdown in EV demand.”
This research note is reproduced verbatim from the issuing firm. Price Target never edits, paraphrases or alters analysts’ words — we only republish them in one place.
