Cantor Fitzgerald Keeps Tesla’s $510 Price Target

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard reiterated on January 27, 2026, an ‘Overweight’ rating on Tesla, with a $510 price target.

“Tesla Reports Earnings Tomorrow (1/28) – Cantor’s Take

In 4Q25, TSLA delivered 418,227 vehicles, below consensus of 422,850, (and below 482,579 in 4Q24), and produced 434,358, (below 459,445 vehicles in 4Q24).

For FY25, TSLA delivered 1,636,129 vehicles, below consensus of 1,640,752, (and below 1,747,988 vehicles in FY24), and produced 1,654,667 vehicles (below 1,773,443 vehicles in FY24).

Sales in 4Q were mostly affected by the removal of the EV Tax Credit (which expired in September), and FY25 marked the second consecutive year of auto sales decline for the company.

On Tomorrow’s call, we expect Tesla to likely disclose its 2026 vehicle delivery outlook, and it will be interesting to see whether TSLA guides to growth in its auto business, or another year of fewer sales.

Separately, Tesla’s Energy Generation & Storage segment experienced its highest year on record in FY25, after the company announced it deployed 46.7 GWh (vs. 31.4 GWh in FY24), and tomorrow we expect the company to disclose its 2026 Energy Generation and Storage segment outlook (grew ~49% YoY, and we expect continued growth this year).

For the print, Consensus is targeting 4Q25 revenue of ~$24.5B, GAAP Gross Margin of ~17.0%, 4Q25 adj. EBITDA of ~$3.6B, Non-GAAP Diluted EPS of $0.43, and 4Q25 FCF of $84M.

During the call, we also expect Elon to provide additional information on Tesla’s Robotaxi rollout (after it recently removed safety driver in Austin), and more specifically, its plans to expand to multiple metro areas this year (we expect 1H26), and ahead of the upcoming CyberCab release (no steering wheel or pedals), which we expect in 2H26.

Recall, in 3Q, TSLA launched FSD (Supervised) in Australia and New Zealand, and the company continues to prepare for a broader FSD rollout in China and an initial FSD launch in Europe (subject to regulatory approval).

We continue to view the upcoming FSD commercialization in China and Europe as material catalysts and accretive to margins.

Furthermore, at the World Economic Forum, Musk stated that Tesla’s upcoming humanoid robot (“Optimus”) will be available for purchase by consumers starting in 2H27.

In addition, MarketsandMarkets recently provided an update on the humanoid robotics market, estimating the global market will grow from ~$2.9B in 2025 to $15.3B by 2030, representing a 39.2% CAGR.

We believe this is a material opportunity for TSLA over the long term, and on the call, we hope for further details around Optimus’ mass production timeline, fleet size, or ASPs.

Finally, we continue to expect TSLA will enter the self-driving trucking industry this decade, and so we are also looking for an update on the timing of production of its Semi (we expect SOP in 2Q26).

Where Does Consensus Stand?

• 4Q25E/FY25E revenue of ~$24.5B/~$94.4B
• 4Q25E/FY25E Gross Margin of ~17.0%/~17.2%
• 4Q25E/FY25E Adj. EBITDA of ~$3.6B/~$13.4B
• 4Q25E/FY25E Non-GAAP Diluted EPS of $0.43/$1.59
• 4Q25E/FY25E FCF of $84M/$4.9B

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