UBS Keeps Buy on NVIDIA, $245 Price Target

UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri reiterated a Buy rating and $245 price target on NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA).

“Inference, infrastructure and a heavy dose of robotics are the key themes this year. Product announcements from the keynote were generally as expected, though the tone around CPUs was more bullish. NVDA updated and extended the backlog slide it showed at GTC last fall, now indicating its prior $500B (excluding Hopper) for C2025+2026 is now $1T+ for C2025-2027.

On the basis of our numbers (which are far above Street), this implies C2027 data center revenue that is ~$60B below our model (~$460B vs ~$520B) but we would also note that we are still well w/in lead time so there is more than enough time for new orders to add to this number (and it does not include new products like CPX, LPX/Groq (which NVDA now says could be 25% of the market) or standalone CPU).

For example, we think NVDA is going to do ~$40B+ more in revenue this year than this slide last fall would have implied (or nearly 10%). We would also note that because the Street is so far below our numbers, this new slide implies ~7-8% upside to current Street estimates for C2027 data center revenue.

Net of everything, we believe this new slide is about in-line to slightly above current investor expectations for C2027.”

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