Freedom Broker Lowers Oracle Price Target to $210

Freedom Broker analyst Egor Tolmachev lowered the price target on Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) to $210.00 (from $230.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.

“Oracle’s FQ4’26 capped a year of deliberate transformation — from a steady enterprise-software incumbent into one of the most aggressive builders of AI compute in the market.

The quarter itself was strong, with cloud reaccelerating and applications momentum intact, yet the print has become almost secondary to two larger facts: a contracted backlog that now stretches years into the future, and a capital program large enough to reshape the balance sheet.

The investment question has shifted with it — no longer whether demand exists, but whether Oracle can fund the build, convert an extraordinary backlog into recognized revenue and cash, and defend its credit standing along the way.

Management’s answer leans on prepaid and customer-funded structures that lower the external capital required, and on a long-term framework it reaffirmed with unusual conviction.

In the wake of the 10-K, the shares suffered their steepest weekly fall since the dot-com era, due to rising leverage and another market reassessment of AI trend sustainability.

We view execution as necessary but not yet sufficient to re-rate the stock, which we expect to trade on conversion and funding proof points.

We have lowered our price target for ORCL to $210 while reiterating our Buy rating.”

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