UBS Reiterates Neutral on Apple, $296 Price Target

UBS analyst David Vogt reiterated a Neutral rating and $296.00 price target on Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL).

“UBS Evidence Lab recently surveyed over 7,500 smartphone users in the U.S., U.K., China, Germany, and Japan to gauge smartphone demand.

The key takeaways from the survey pertaining to Apple: 1.12-month global iPhone purchase intent in the US rose ~300 bps YoY to ~20%, as China fell ~100 bps YoY to ~15%.

The UK (+600 bps YoY) and Germany (+400 bps YoY) saw material increases as the change in Japan (+100 bps YoY) was more modest in our view.

2.The average age of an iPhone in the user base downticked to ~22.9 months from last survey (-0.8 months HoH) but still near survey highs.

3.Apple Intelligence is not driving upgrade activity as total respondents indicating that they would upgrade sooner for Apple Intelligence features declined to ~24% (-500 bps HoH) while those noting no impact on their purchasing decision rose to ~31% (+300 bps HoH).

4.Total ‘net interest’ (the delta between ‘interested’ and ‘not interested’) in an Apple foldable declined ~100 bps from the prior survey to ~39%, but the favorability spread over a foldable smartphone rose ~600 bps HoH.”

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