Wells Fargo Initiates SpaceX at Overweight, $230 PT

Wells Fargo analyst Ken Gawrelski initiates coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) with a Overweight rating and a price target of $230.

“Acknowledging the likelihood of developmental delays in frontier innovation, bullish on the opportunity for Starship to accelerate SpaceX’s market opportunity initially at its communications business Starlink and then longer term in a cost-advantaged AI infrastructure build through deployment of orbital compute.

See financial projections through 2028 dependent more upon execution than innovation, with 2029+ offering multiple call options on SpaceX’s demonstrated track record of innovation.

Estimate 99 Starship launches through 2028 sufficient to support Starlink broadband expansion buildout, while 1,300 / 2,800 required in ’29 / ’30 to support orbital compute deployments.

Expect partial Starship stage 2 reusability in 2029 to enable total launches to inflect (+1,200 launches Y/Y, +900% Y/Y), with full reusability achieved in 2030.

Starship unlocks more favorable launch economics by 2029 and capacity expansion to orbit next-gen satellites for Connectivity (V3 broadband, V2 mobile).

See Starship reusability as key unlock to make scaled orbital compute deployments feasible, forecasted to approach unit economic parity with terrestrial compute build by 2029.

Project 4.6k launches supporting 24.2GW orbital compute additions in 2031, implying 1.3 launches per launch pad per day and 10 launch pads.

Forecast each 1GW orbital compute requires 190 Starship launches (~5MW compute per launch), implying 1,214 Starship launches to achieve estimated 6.4GW orbital compute by YE29.”

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