TD Cowen Reaffirms Buy on Tesla, $460 Price Target

TD Cowen analyst Itay Michaeli reiterated a Buy rating and $460 price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA)

“As usual, a number of puts/takes in the quarter, but we walk away more encouraged by automotive gross margin expansion, FSD/RoboTaxi updates, and positive EV demand comments.

The Optimus/capex updates will likely draw some debate but don’t amount to a major concern for us, particularly with the NT AV catalyst path looking even brighter. No major estimate changes.

Maintain Buy, $460 PT.

Positives — (1) Positive EV demand commentary with Tesla reporting its largest backlog in 4 years. Tesla plans to expand capacity to 5mln vehicles by 2030, supporting our 4.4mln 2030 delivery estimate.

(2) Record NA FSD attach rates at >75%, up from >55% in Q2. FSD continues to drive EV demand, consistent with our thesis, and global expansion is expected to continue, including in Europe.

(3) Related to this, unsupervised FSD is expected to launch in Q2’27. (4) Encouraging RoboTaxi updates on miles growth, Cybercab expansion and plans for customer deliveries by year-end.

After achieving 1mln RoboTaxi miles in Sept, Tesla has now reached 3.3mln miles.

Negatives — (1) Though early high-volume Optimus production has begun, management outlined a number of items that still need to be addressed, which could take until the end of 2027.

(2) 2026 capex guide cut back to $20bln from $25bln, in line with original 2026 guidance.

(3) Q3 benefited from tariff refunds & warranty in the Energy segment, while overall Opex was above expectations.”

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