Cantor Fitzgerald Lowers Rivian Price Target to $16

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard lowered the price target on Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) to $16 (from $19) while maintaining a Neutral rating.

“Our Thoughts – Cantor’s Take: RIVN reported a 3Q26 revenue beat of $2,155M vs. consensus of ~$2,056M (including Automotive revenue of $1,550M and Software revenue of $605M), driven primarily by 19,248 vehicle deliveries.

Additionally, RIVN raised the midpoint of its FY26 vehicle delivery guidance to 67,000-70,000 (from prior 65,000-70,000 vehicles), vs. 42,247 vehicles delivered in FY25. RIVN also updated its FY26 Adj.

EBITDA guidance to ($1.85B)-($1.75B), vs. prior ($2.0B)-($1.8B), driven primarily by better-than-expected regulatory credits revenue (though management doesn’t expect additional reg credit revenue through the end of 2027), and updated its FY26 Capex guidance to $1.40B-$1.50B (from prior $1.70B-$1.80B).

On the call, management disclosed that its R2 was the company’s best-selling vehicle by volume in the third quarter (and started a second R2 production shift), and we expect R2 to constitute the highest deliveries going forward.

In our opinion, we continue to expect R2 deliveries to materially boost customer demand (driven by the more competitive price point and the recently unveiled autonomy features).

RIVN first launched deliveries of its R2 with a starting price of $57,990, and the company is targeting to launch a Premium trim (<$55,000) at the end of this year and a Standard trim (<$47,000) next year.

On its Q3 call, RIVN disclosed it expects to release point-to-point autonomy in a limited rollout (invitation-only) later this year, followed by a broader and general rollout in 2027, which we view as a material catalyst.

RIVN is then targeting “Eyes-off” autonomous capability (in 2027), and ultimately L4 autonomous robotaxi capabilities (in 2028).

Additionally, RIVN previously announced a partnership with Uber to deploy up to 50,000 fully autonomous Robotaxis exclusively on the Uber platform (10,000 R2 vehicles initially), targeting initial deliveries in 2028.

As part of this agreement, Uber will invest up to $1.25B in Rivian (through 2031), and on the call management disclosed it expects its next Uber milestone by Year-End.

We view Rivian’s AI and customer-focused autonomous approach as a way for the company to materially improve the unit economics over time.

Overall, we continue to believe that RIVN benefits from a differentiated product offering (R1, EDVs, R2, EV charging, and Autonomy), a commercial partnership with Amazon, and a strategic joint venture with Volkswagen.

However, while we expect several material catalysts through 2027, we remain Neutral in the near term, and we wait for further granularity on Autonomy Monetization and Chip development, and material ramp-up of the R2 platform.

Our Neutral rating is Unchanged and we lower our 12-month to $16 PT (from prior $19).”

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