Rosenblatt Keeps Sell on Intel, $20 Price Target

Rosenblatt analyst Hans Mosesmann reiterated a Sell rating and $20 price target on Intel (NASDAQ: INTC).

“Intel delivered a modest 4Q24 top line beat ($14.3B vs our/consensus $13.8B/$13.8B), while Non-GAAP EPS came in slightly above ($0.13 vs. our/consensus $0.12/$0.13).

Revenues were driven by sequential growth across all segments.

The company significantly missed on the 1Q25 guide (revs/Non-GAAP EPS of $12.2B/$0.00 vs our & consensus $13.0B/$0.17 & $12.9B/$0.10) on seasonal weakness, macro uncertainty (tariffs), PC inventory digestion, and continued share losses.

A few dynamics we would highlight: 1) Intel announced that its Falcon Shores GPU for AI and HPC will not come to market, but will stay internal.

The team decided to use the hardware and software to accelerate Jaguar Shores (the successor) and focus more on rack-scale.

With Intel’s only AI product being its Gaudi 3 (which has been lukewarm), we see Intel continuing to miss the Mother-of-All-Semiconductor Cycles; 2) Management is focusing on the 18A process node ramp, with Panther Lake set to be launched in 2H25 and Clearwater Forest in 1H26.

We see the company facing GM headwinds on the ramp for 2026 in Foundry; and 3) Management noted the company is on track to ship more than 100M AI PCs by the end of 2025.

While Intel’s PC CPU dynamics are solid, we continue to expect the company to lose share to AMD.

Net/net, we see 2025/2026 as transitional for Intel as management’s move to right-size the ship will take time.

We lower our FY25 revenue/Non-GAAP EPS estimates from $55.0B/$1.00 to $52.5B/ $0.45, and lower our FY26 estimates from $58.0B/$1.50 to $56.0B/$1.10.

We reiterate our Sell rating and $20 PT based on a mid-teens P/E multiple to our FY26 Non-GAAP EPS.”

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