What the analyst said
Baird analyst Colin Sebastian lowered the price target on Meta Platforms Inc.
(NASDAQ: META) to $625 (from $750) while maintaining an Outperform rating.
“Meta’s high quality ad platform (targeting, relevance, attribution/measurement capabilities) is somewhat more resilient than secondary digital platforms in macro downturns.
However, Meta still has a meaningful mix of brand advertising, exposure to APAC, and to discretionary product categories.
Through this lens, we are lowering our 2025 revenue estimate to $187.5 billion (+14% Y/Y) from $190.5 billion, and our GAAP operating income estimate to $72.9 billion (38.9% margin) from $74.5 billion.
We do not expect Meta to reduce operating expenses below the guided range at this point, given the high priority of AI/GenAI and reality labs investments and potential for higher infrastructure prices from new tariffs.
Price target.
Reflecting our updated estimates and sector multiple contraction, we are lowering our 12-month price target to $625 from $750, based on a multi-year DCF as well as ~20.5x 2026E P/E (GAAP EPS) and ~15x 2026E EV/EBITDA, within the range of peer multiples of 10-30x 2026E P/E and 5-30x 2026E EV/EBITDA.”
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Where the price stands
META trades at $610. The 33 analysts who set a target in the last 3 months range from $650 to $1,000, with a median of $860. This $625 target is 27% below the median, the lowest on the Street.
Since the note META has moved +20% (from $510). The 12-month window closed on April 9, 2026.
Track record
This call✓ Target reached on May 12, 2025, 33 days after the note.
Firm track recordBaird: 91% of its 32 targets at least a year old were reached within 12 months (#1 of 26 firms); on Meta, 4 of 6. Accuracy ranking →
Baird on Meta
Baird price targets on Meta
7 calls from July 31, 2025 to October 22, 2026. The target went from $820 to $815 (−1%). The rating stayed Buy.
- October 22, 2026Target raised from $750 (+9%)Buy$815
- July 30, 2026Target cut from $830 (−10%)Buy$750
- July 16, 2026Kept the $830 targetBuy$830
- January 29, 2026Target raised from $815 (+2%)Buy$830
- December 23, 2025Target cut from $820 (−1%)Buy$815
- October 30, 2025Kept the $820 targetBuy$820
- July 31, 2025Earliest call shownBuy$820
Other analysts on Meta
Wells FargoBuy
Kept rating and price target · Oct 27
$995maintained
Citizens JMPBuy
Kept rating and price target · Oct 27
$885maintained
MizuhoBuy
Kept rating and price target · Oct 26
$950maintained
Canaccord GenuityBuy
Kept rating and price target · Oct 26
$950maintained
William BlairBuy
Kept rating · Oct 26