UBS Affirms Neutral on Rivian, $13 Price Target

UBS analyst Joseph Spak reiterated a Neutral rating and $13 price target on Rivian Automotive Inc (NASDAQ: RIVN)

“In this report, we focus on RIVN specific trends from our 2025 UBS Evidence Lab Global EV survey results (>Access Dataset and see Global report here and US report here).

While an increasing number of US consumers are aware of the Rivian Brand, overall awareness remains low (13% vs. 10% last year).

Further, only ~5% of BEV owners/buyers indicated they would consider purchasing a RIVN (up from 4.5% last year). For reference, we estimate RIVN’s 2024 US BEV share (ex-vans) was ~3%.

The survey indicates that consumers still want more EV choices and alternatives, which may be positive for RIVN.

In fact, of those who would consider buying a Tesla, ~30% are more likely to consider purchasing a Rivian (up from 26% last year).

However, overall US interest for EVs has declined, and given potential pushout of EPA requirements and repeal of the California waiver, the EV inflection may be further out than expected.

Note, the removal of the California waiver may also limit RIVN’s ability to generate and sell ZEV credits. Slower EV growth is likely exacerbated by a lack of affordable options.

Only ~35% of respondents believed EVs are affordable vs. ICE vehicles. RIVN’s R1S SUV starts at $75.9k while the R1T pickup starts at $69.9k.

The average price of a vehicle in the US is currently $47.9k while the average BEV (incl. tax credits) is $57.4k.

The potential removal of consumer clean vehicle tax credits (CVC), including the “leasing loophole”, could further limit EV adoption. In 2024, we estimate that ~59% of Rivian R1s were leased.

While not all demand would be destroyed if CVCs are removed, we believe it would still be a headwind. The above two factors are why RIVN’s R2 model launch is so critical to the equity story.

R2 remains on track for 2026 with a starting price of ~$45k.

Near-term, especially if US policies move away from an EV world, continued cost out of the R1 and increased manufacturing efficiencies are key.

We remain Neutral rated on RIVN given a likely tougher near-term EV environment, but we do see potential for a positive longer term outlook, particularly as we get closer to R2 launch and gain more clarity on the potential ramp.”

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