UBS Reiterates Buy on NVIDIA, $175 Price Target

UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri reiterated a Buy rating and $175 price target on NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA).

“Overall, we see the debate having shifted in a positive direction here as results and guidance were as we (and most investors) expected but gross margin commentary was a little better than feared, and NVDA’s comments on GB200 rack shipments (and progress on GB300) were even more bullish than the positive feedback at Computex last week and give little air to investor concerns about supply chain inventory.

This quarter also highlighted that, were it not for the China ban, FQ2 revenue would have likely been ~$5-6B above Street numbers, evidence of strengthening underlying fundamentals.

Supply (as we measure it) was basically flat Q/Q (Figure 1) – on the surface not suggestive of a big 2H – but this number was negatively impacted by the writedown so on a pro-forma basis, supply did actually grow.

With China stripped out of the model, the set up here seems constructive as it seems likely the Trump administration will allow NVDA to ship a new SKU into China (we assume ~$2-3B/Q add-back), hyperscaler capex vectors remain to the upside, and AI is rapidly diffusing around the world given the sheer size of some of these projects ranging from Humain/Saudi Arabia (~$10B for NVDA) to Stargate (~$20B for NVDA) to the 5GW AI campus in UAE (~$100B for NVDA).

Net, we increase estimates for C2025/2026 and remain keyed to a ~$6 EPS number next year which we think supports our $175 PT and Buy rating.”

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