HSBC Upgrades Nvidia to ‘Buy’ With a $320 Price Target

HSBC analyst Frank Lee upgraded on October 15, 2025, Nvidia’s rating from ‘Hold’ to ‘Buy,’ with a price target of $320 (up from $200).

“We upgrade NVIDIA to Buy on the back of increasing FY27e GPU total addressable market (TAM) relative to our previous expectations, leading to an upward revision in our FY27e datacenter revenue to USD351bn, which remains 36% above consensus forecast of USD258bn.

We also see potential easing of China GPU uncertainties following the potential US-China trade deal that could enable NVIDIA to see a demand recovery in the Chinese market.

Hence, our revised FY27e (YE Jan) EPS of USD8.75 is now once again significantly above consensus EPS forecast of USD6.48 despite not including any revenue from chip exports to China in FY27e.

We raise NVIDIA’s FY27e CoWoS allocation to 700k (from 480k) which implies YoY growth of 140% as we are seeing renewed CoWoS wafer allocation momentum resuming for the first time since 4Q25.

We believe NVIDIA’s aggressive FY27e CoWoS wafer forecasts at TSMC will not only lead to upward revision in FY27e datacenter revenues that should exceed consensus forecasts, but also re-affirms our thesis of ever-increasing AI GPU TAM beyond reliance on traditional CSP capex.

Our bull-case scenario suggests potentially USD390bn in FY27e datacenter revenue, or an implied FY27e EPS of USD9.68 based on FY27e CoWoS allocation of 800k wafers based on recent supply chain feedback.”

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