BofA Securities Reiterates Buy Rating on Meta, $810 Price Target

BofA Securities analyst Justin Post reiterated a Buy rating and $810.00 price target on Meta (NASDAQ: META).

“Meta will report 1/28. We expect 4Q Rev/EPS of $59.2bn/$8.27, above the Street at $58.3bn/$8.20.

Checks suggest potential upside driven by healthy macro, usage growth, & AI targeting (we think the Street could be expecting 4Q rev. around $59.5bn, +23%).

Data suggests potential 4Q expense discipline, with 4Q job postings down 16% q/q (vs Street +3% q/q).

Set up is aided by growing concerns on ’26 expense guide, risk is a larger-than-expected investment cycle.

For 1Q’26, we estimate Rev/EPS of $52.3bn/$6.31 vs Street $51.2bn/$6.29. Assuming 4Q at/above high end of the guide, and FX benefit, we expect 1Q guide at $50.0-$52.5bn (+18-24% y/y).

Based on 3Q commentary & YTD infrastructure investment news, we expect FY26 expense guide of $153-$160bn (up 30-36%, vs Street $150bn), with potential to come in below if rev. growth slows & the high end allowing for more AI capacity investment.

For Capex, we expect guidance of $109-$114bn (vs Street $110bn).

Concerns on ’26 expenses have been building for 5 months & we think an expense guide at around 30% 2026 growth could be positive, while at/above 35% a negative.

Other positives could be constructive commentary on NT Avocado launch, future AI video models to drive usage, and continued revenue strength.

Risk is an extended investment cycle (higher ’26 expense & capex outlook), causing Street to lower 2027 estimates.

Other risks are EU regs., ad quality, and competitive (TT) impact on revenue growth.”

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