BofA Securities Reiterates Buy Rating on Meta, $810 Price Target
BofA Securities analyst Justin Post reiterated a Buy rating and $810.00 price target on Meta (NASDAQ: META).
“Meta will report 1/28. We expect 4Q Rev/EPS of $59.2bn/$8.27, above the Street at $58.3bn/$8.20.
Checks suggest potential upside driven by healthy macro, usage growth, & AI targeting (we think the Street could be expecting 4Q rev. around $59.5bn, +23%).
Data suggests potential 4Q expense discipline, with 4Q job postings down 16% q/q (vs Street +3% q/q).
Set up is aided by growing concerns on ’26 expense guide, risk is a larger-than-expected investment cycle.
For 1Q’26, we estimate Rev/EPS of $52.3bn/$6.31 vs Street $51.2bn/$6.29. Assuming 4Q at/above high end of the guide, and FX benefit, we expect 1Q guide at $50.0-$52.5bn (+18-24% y/y).
Based on 3Q commentary & YTD infrastructure investment news, we expect FY26 expense guide of $153-$160bn (up 30-36%, vs Street $150bn), with potential to come in below if rev. growth slows & the high end allowing for more AI capacity investment.
For Capex, we expect guidance of $109-$114bn (vs Street $110bn).
Concerns on ’26 expenses have been building for 5 months & we think an expense guide at around 30% 2026 growth could be positive, while at/above 35% a negative.
Other positives could be constructive commentary on NT Avocado launch, future AI video models to drive usage, and continued revenue strength.
Risk is an extended investment cycle (higher ’26 expense & capex outlook), causing Street to lower 2027 estimates.
Other risks are EU regs., ad quality, and competitive (TT) impact on revenue growth.”
This research note is reproduced verbatim from the issuing firm. Price Target never edits, paraphrases or alters analysts’ words — we only republish them in one place.
