Oppenheimer Reiterates Outperform on Microsoft, $515 Price Target
- Rating
- Outperform
- Unchanged
- Target
- $515
- Unchanged
- Outcome
- Reached
- on September 25, 2026

What the analyst said
Oppenheimer analyst Brian Schwartz reiterated an Outperform rating and $515.00 price target on Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT).
“We maintain our positive stance on MSFT but believe F3Q results are not enough to change the narrative.
The bulls will highlight F3Q and F4Q showing accelerating revenue growth in the Azure business despite tougher comparisons, the M365 business accelerating against an AI disruption narrative, and its AI business growing triple-digits at a large scale as proof points Microsoft is an AI winner.
The bears will highlight declining margins across PBC, Intelligent Cloud, and gross margin from Microsoft having to play catch-up in AI by embedding lower-margin AI throughout products.
Also, Capex guidance is exceeding net income. Management likely guided Capex growth aggressively to correct the Street estimates which were too low.
Nevertheless, the latter feeds the bear case about poor Capex returns for Microsoft.”
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Where the price stands
MSFT trades at $536. The 28 analysts who set a target in the last 3 months range from $515 to $750, with a median of $630. This $515 target is 18% below the median, the lowest on the Street.
Since the note MSFT has moved +26% (from $424). 12-month window: day 189 of 365, closes on April 30, 2027.
Track record
This call✓ Target reached on September 25, 2026, 5 months after the note.
Firm track recordOppenheimer: 64% of its 14 targets at least a year old were reached within 12 months; on Microsoft, 0 of 2. Accuracy ranking →
Oppenheimer on Microsoft
Oppenheimer price targets on Microsoft
8 calls from July 9, 2025 to October 29, 2026. The target went from $600 to $625 (+4%). The rating stayed Buy.
- October 29, 2026Kept the $625 targetBuy$625
- October 26, 2026Target raised from $570 (+10%)Buy$625
- September 22, 2026Target raised from $515 (+11%)Buy$570
- July 30, 2026Kept the $515 targetBuy$515
- July 22, 2026Kept the $515 targetBuy$515
- April 30, 2026 This noteTarget cut from $630 (−18%)Buy$515
- October 30, 2025Target raised from $600 (+5%)Buy$630
- July 9, 2025Earliest call shownBuy$600




