Oppenheimer Reiterates Outperform on Microsoft, $515 Price Target

Analyst: Brian Schwartz 1 min read Reproduced verbatim
Rating
Outperform
Unchanged
Target
$515
Unchanged
Outcome
Reached
on September 25, 2026
Oppenheimer and Microsoft logos

What the analyst said

Oppenheimer analyst Brian Schwartz reiterated an Outperform rating and $515.00 price target on Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT).

“We maintain our positive stance on MSFT but believe F3Q results are not enough to change the narrative.

The bulls will highlight F3Q and F4Q showing accelerating revenue growth in the Azure business despite tougher comparisons, the M365 business accelerating against an AI disruption narrative, and its AI business growing triple-digits at a large scale as proof points Microsoft is an AI winner.

The bears will highlight declining margins across PBC, Intelligent Cloud, and gross margin from Microsoft having to play catch-up in AI by embedding lower-margin AI throughout products.

Also, Capex guidance is exceeding net income. Management likely guided Capex growth aggressively to correct the Street estimates which were too low.

Nevertheless, the latter feeds the bear case about poor Capex returns for Microsoft.”

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This research note is reproduced verbatim from the issuing firm. Price Target never edits, paraphrases or alters analysts’ words — we only republish them in one place.

Where the price stands

MSFT trades at $536. The 28 analysts who set a target in the last 3 months range from $515 to $750, with a median of $630. This $515 target is 18% below the median, the lowest on the Street.

Since the note MSFT has moved +26% (from $424). 12-month window: day 189 of 365, closes on April 30, 2027.

Track record

This call✓ Target reached on September 25, 2026, 5 months after the note.

Firm track recordOppenheimer: 64% of its 14 targets at least a year old were reached within 12 months; on Microsoft, 0 of 2. Accuracy ranking →

Earnings reactionOne of 15 notes after Microsoft’s Apr 29 results: 7 raised · 3 cut · 5 kept. See every call →

Oppenheimer on Microsoft

Oppenheimer price targets on Microsoft

8 calls from July 9, 2025 to October 29, 2026. The target went from $600 to $625 (+4%). The rating stayed Buy.

Oppenheimer targetMSFT share price
  1. October 29, 2026Kept the $625 targetBuy$625
  2. October 26, 2026Target raised from $570 (+10%)Buy$625
  3. September 22, 2026Target raised from $515 (+11%)Buy$570
  4. July 30, 2026Kept the $515 targetBuy$515
  5. July 22, 2026Kept the $515 targetBuy$515
  6. April 30, 2026 This noteTarget cut from $630 (−18%)Buy$515
  7. October 30, 2025Target raised from $600 (+5%)Buy$630
  8. July 9, 2025Earliest call shownBuy$600
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Price Target is an archive of Wall Street analyst research, published for informational purposes only. Nothing on this site is investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Analyst ratings and price targets are the opinions of the issuing firms, not of Price Target. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser.