Oppenheimer Reiterates Outperform on Microsoft, $515 Price Target

Oppenheimer analyst Brian Schwartz reiterated an Outperform rating and $515 price target on Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT).

“We maintain our Outperform rating on MSFT ahead of F4Q26 results.

In our view, Microsoft’s demand appears healthy, F4Q should show a robust AI business and stable M365 revenue growth, and investor expectations are not elevated after IBM’s negative preannouncement and multiples re-rating lower in F4Q26.

These items should be enough to support the stock post F4Q.

However, investor concerns over Capex growth and returns, AI disruption to the M365 franchise, increasing competitive pressures, and perception that management is playing catch-up in the AI market are unlikely to be resolved post the F4Q update.

The Street may also be modeling Microsoft’s Capex too optimistically as the company needs to continue investing in elevated Capex growth in FY27 for greater AI and cloud capacity over the medium term.”

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