UBS Microsoft · MSFT

UBS Lowers Microsoft Price Target to $480

Analyst: Karl Kierstead 1 min read Reproduced verbatim
Rating
Buy
Target
$480
from $510 (−6%)
Outcome
Reached
on August 3, 2026
UBS and Microsoft logos

What the analyst said

UBS analyst Karl Kierstead lowered the price target on Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) to $480 (from $510) while maintaining a Buy rating.

“As we approach Microsoft’s 4Q/Jun print this week, we offer our fresh thoughts on Azure and M365/Office growth based on a dozen or so recent conversations with Microsoft customers and partners, in addition to updating our view on FY27 capex, margins and the impact of AI model-layer trends such as token optimization and open models on Microsoft.

Bottom line, we remain BUY-rated but are more tactically balanced into this print.

We’re eyes-wide-open to the reality that the Street is not rewarding the stocks of AI infra providers that signal higher capex spend and/or don’t post upside to cloud revs growth and margins (see Oracle and Google).

While Azure/AWS demand appears to be very healthy and the GitHub Copilot pricing change offers a modest Azure growth rate boost, capacity constraints on external customers and early token optimization efforts could limit the potential for material Azure guidance upside, while capex estimates could move higher on MT demand and memory inflation.”

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This research note is reproduced verbatim from the issuing firm. Price Target never edits, paraphrases or alters analysts’ words — we only republish them in one place.

Where the price stands

MSFT trades at $536. The 28 analysts who set a target in the last 3 months range from $515 to $750, with a median of $630. This $480 target is 24% below the median, the lowest on the Street.

Since the note MSFT has moved +40% (from $382). 12-month window: day 101 of 365, closes on July 27, 2027.

Track record

This call✓ Target reached on August 3, 2026, 7 days after the note.

Firm track recordUBS: 81% of its 54 targets at least a year old were reached within 12 months (#9 of 26 firms). Accuracy ranking →

UBS on Microsoft

UBS price targets on Microsoft

6 calls from July 31, 2025 to October 29, 2026. The target went from $650 to $700 (+8%). The rating stayed Buy.

UBS targetMSFT share price
  1. October 29, 2026Target raised from $675 (+4%)Buy$700
  2. October 15, 2026Target raised from $525 (+29%)Buy$675
  3. July 30, 2026Target raised from $480 (+9%)Buy$525
  4. July 27, 2026 This noteTarget cut from $510 (−6%)Buy$480
  5. April 30, 2026Target cut from $650 (−22%)Buy$510
  6. July 31, 2025Earliest call shownBuy$650
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Other analysts on Microsoft

BairdBuy Raised price target +20%, kept rating Oct 30 $600from $500 ArgusBuy Kept rating Oct 30 TD CowenBuy Raised price target +4%, kept rating Oct 29 $650from $625 CantorBuy Raised price target +4%, kept rating Oct 29 $630from $608 DA DavidsonBuy Raised price target +18%, kept rating Oct 29 $650from $550
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Price Target is an archive of Wall Street analyst research, published for informational purposes only. Nothing on this site is investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Analyst ratings and price targets are the opinions of the issuing firms, not of Price Target. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser.