HSBC NVIDIA · NVDA

HSBC Lowers NVIDIA Price Target to $175

February 19, 2025 Analyst: Frank Lee 1 min read Reproduced verbatim

Rating: Buy
Target: $175; from $185 (−5%)
Outcome: Reached; on July 28, 2025

What the analyst said

HSBC analyst Frank Lee lowered the price target on NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) to $175 (from $185) while maintaining a Buy rating.

“We highlighted in our 10 January note Ongoing supply chain overhang into H1 FY26e that ongoing GB200 supply chain issues, especially around ODM assembly, could remain an overhang going into H1FY26 (YE Jan).

Hence, we believe there remains downside risk to our previous NVL rack server revenue forecasts and we now lower our FY26e NVL rack server assumption from 35k to 30k.

However, we expect Nvidia to be able to offset the slower GB200 ramp with upside in B200 GPU shipments in H1 FY26e, enabling Nvidia to still book Blackwell revenues of cUSD5bn and cUSD10bn in 4QFY25 and 1QFY26, respectively, leading to total revenue of USD40bn/42.2bn in 4QFY25/1QFY26 vs consensus of USD38.2bn/USD42bn.Ahead of the 4QFY25 results on 26 February, we expect 4QFY25 sales of USD40bn to still beat management guidance/consensus of USD37.5bn/USD38.2bn.

We also expect 1QFY26/2QFY26 sales of USD42.2bn/USD55.4bn vs consensus of USD42bn/USD46.2bn, implying H1 FY26 is unlikely to disappoint the market despite ongoing supply side issues.

However, we also expect the market to increasingly focus on Blackwell revenue momentum instead of overall sales momentum, which could exceed market expectations given the B200 ramp-up.”

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Where the price stands

This target$175Highest$515Today$187Median$315At the note$139

NVDA trades at $187. The 27 analysts who set a target in the last 3 months range from $270 to $515, with a median of $315. This $175 target is 44% below the median, the lowest on the Street.

Since the note NVDA has moved +34% (from $139). The 12-month window closed on February 19, 2026.

Track record

This call✓ Target reached on July 28, 2025, 5 months after the note.

Firm track recordHSBC: 60% of its 20 targets at least a year old were reached within 12 months (#25 of 26 firms); on NVIDIA, 4 of 5. Accuracy ranking →