Baird Tesla · TSLA

Baird Lowers Tesla Price Target to $370

March 6, 2025 Analyst: Ben Kallo 1 min read Reproduced verbatim
Rating
Buy
Target
$370
from $440 (−16%)
Outcome
Reached
on September 12, 2025
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What the analyst said

Baird analyst Ben Kallo lowered the price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to $370 (from $440) while maintaining an Outperform rating.

“Adding Bearish Fresh Pick given near-term headwinds. Intra-quarter sales data from TSLA’s key regions lead us to believe there is risk to the consensus Q1 delivery estimate of 437.5K.

Production downtime associated with the Model Y refresh complicates the supply-side of the equation while at the same time, Musk’s involvement with the Trump administration adds uncertainty to the demand-side.

We continue to view TSLA as a core holding long term and see the company as the leader in real-world AI, but are bearish near-term through the Q1 delivery report.

We estimate that ~300K Model Ys are delivered in a typical quarter and the downtime adds risk to the Q1 total, in our view.

Recall Musk stated on the Q4 call, “now Q1, we’ve got this massive factory retooling for the New Model Y, for example, that obviously has a short-term impact on output” and TSLA went through the process of updating its manufacturing lines to refresh the Model 3 in Q124 and we lowered our estimates to reflect the downtime.”

Disclaimer
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This research note is reproduced verbatim from the issuing firm. Price Target never edits, paraphrases or alters analysts’ words — we only republish them in one place.

Where the price stands

TSLA trades at $383. The 22 analysts who set a target in the last 3 months range from $24.86 to $500, with a median of $418. This $370 target is 11% below the median.

Since the note TSLA has moved +37% (from $279). The 12-month window closed on March 6, 2026.

Track record

This call✓ Target reached on September 12, 2025, 6 months after the note.

Firm track recordBaird: 93% of its 15 targets at least a year old were reached within 12 months (#4 of 20 firms); on Tesla, 5 of 6. Accuracy ranking →

Baird on Tesla

Baird price targets on Tesla

8 calls from January 29, 2025 to October 23, 2025. The target went from $440 to $548 (+25%). The rating stayed Buy.

Baird targetTSLA share price
  1. October 23, 2025Kept the $548 targetBuy$548
  2. September 19, 2025Upgraded to Buy, target raised from $320 (+71%)Buy$548
  3. September 8, 2025Kept the $320 targetHold$320
  4. June 25, 2025Kept the $320 targetHold$320
  5. June 9, 2025Downgraded to HoldHoldNo target
  6. April 23, 2025Target cut from $370 (−14%)Buy$320
  7. March 6, 2025 This noteTarget cut from $440 (−16%)Buy$370
  8. January 29, 2025Earliest call shownBuy$440
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Other analysts on Tesla

Yorkville IvesBuy Initiated coverage · Oct 7 $500 UBSHold Raised price target +2%, kept rating · Oct 7 $391from $385 Goldman SachsHold Kept rating and price target · Oct 6 $360maintained UBSHold Kept rating and price target · Oct 5 $385maintained TruistHold Kept rating and price target · Oct 5 $370maintained
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Price Target is an archive of Wall Street analyst research, published for informational purposes only. Nothing on this site is investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Analyst ratings and price targets are the opinions of the issuing firms, not of Price Target. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser.