UBS Upgrades Rivian to Buy, $17 Price Target

UBS analyst Joseph Spak upgraded Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) from Neutral to Buy with a price target of $17.

“We see the recent selloff (-19% over the past month vs. S&P500 -1%) as a buying opportunity ahead of an inflection in R2 ramp and gross margins.

Our thesis: 1) Initial R2 demand looks solid which bodes well for when more trim levels come out. 2) As R2 ramps, RIVN should see a positive inflection in auto GM%.

Management expects to exit 2026 with a positive auto GM% aided by R2. This likely means in 1Q27, the company should be able to show a positive figure for this metric.

3) Software & Services growth is progressing nicely and this higher margin business is helping fund growth.

As Autonomy+ (point-to-point) service comes to market, we believe it could drive additional growth and profitability, with a long tail of recurring revenue.

Autonomy+ may end up being one of the few Tesla FSD (which just showed 75% attached rate in NA) competitors in the US.

Dec Autonomy day and customer launch in early 2027 could be a catalyst.

4) While RIVN still burns cash, total available and targeted future capital stand at $13bn, so capital risk over coming years lowered. We don’t see a need for capital before 2029.

RIVN is and will likely remain a volatile stock, but we see sentiment improving which could cause a more positive view on the multiple/valuation.”

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